Dominion's Press Conference about its COLA

Dang it, one expected special guest wasn't able to attend the press conference but maybe he/she will have a statement. I was looking forward to it.

Regardless, my colleagues and I are pleased as punch that Dominion is maintaining a leadership position in the nuclear industry by submitting a full COL application for a third unit at the North Anna site. (Lisa's 401k watch--at last check D stock was up $0.63.)

And while Dominion's CEO Tom Farrell said that getting the licenses does not obligate the company to build NAPS 3 it is clear from many of his other statements that he believes that it is likely that all of the variables will come together in such a way that it will make sense for the company and its customers to go ahead and build.

For instance, he mentioned that in the next decade demand in Virginia will increase by at least 4000 MW and that the need must be supplied by a combination of conservation and efficiency, advanced technologies and reliable baseload. He also said that EIA data shows that Virginia imports more power than any other state except California. I really didn't know that and would like to find a link...

He also mentioned the steps that Virginia's governor and legislature have taken to ensure a secure energy future for our state--steps that include nuclear as an important part of an energy strategy.

But of course, there are hurdles to overcome. Farrell mentioned that before making the decision to build, not only does the company need to have confidence that the NRC will issue a COL for NAPS 3 and a Design Certification for the ESBWR, other government agencies must weigh-in including the state corporation commissions of Virginia and North Carolina.

Another hurdle is the cost. Farrell said that the company is negotiating now with vendors, mainly GE-Hitachi, to nail down a price. I personally believe (meaning that Farrell nor anyone else at Dominion has said this, it is simply The World According to Lisa, and I rarely sign multi-billion dollar contracts) that it is less about the absolute dollar figure that GE-Hitachi proposes (as long as the $/installed kW-hr is within reason!) but the confidence Dominion has in that number and also in the schedule. That the cost of commodities is going up is a given and those same commodities will be bought no matter what kind of baseload generation is built. But with nuclear being more upfront-capital-intensive, the promising but still unproven license process, the need to substantiate a rate case, and the amount of time between saying "go" and sending electrons through power lines, I think the company is most concerned about getting a price and schedule with minimal uncertainties.

Should that dampen our enthusiasm? Absolutely not. Tom Farrell himself said he believes that the company can get to the point where the price is cost-competitive and a benefit to customers. If that happens, and licensing proceeds as scheduled, construction on NAPS 3 could begin in 2010 with commercial operation in 2015.

So I've got a little over two years to find just the right shovel...