A Realistic Assessment of Wind in Minnesota

A couple of days ago, Aaron Fontaine (an avid reader of NEI Nuclear Notes), asked us to look at how realistic the state of Minnesota’s goals are for developing a 20 percent requirement of wind generation by 2020. He sent me a link to the Public Utility Commission which links to this Minnesota Wind Integration Study presentation (pdf).

At first, whenever I hear about a 20% renewable portfolio standard I take it with a grain of salt. But I want to be fair, so we should look at the numbers.

According to the presentation, for wind to achieve 20 percent of MN’s retail sales, utilities would need to build about 4,500 MW. The state right now with the most wind capacity is Texas with 2,800 MW. Minnesota has about 800 MW. So if the state wants to meet that timeline it needs to get cracking.

According to the American Wind Energy Association, one MW takes up about 60 acres. That makes the amount of land needed to develop 4,500 MW about 421 square miles. Then the question becomes whether or not you can site those 4,500 MW in the areas that are most advantageous -- and as we've seen, that's not always the case.

Let’s compare to nuclear. The average land space needed for a nuke is about 1 square mile. This could be for one, two, maybe three reactors at one plant site. Right now, two nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 1,600 MW (pdf) provide almost 25 percent of the state’s generation. If nuclear were to provide the same amount of generation as the 4,500 MW wind farms, Minnesota would only need to build two AP1000s. That would probably only take one square mile and could come online by 2020.

If Minnesota can marshal the political will to deploy enough wind energy capacity to meet 20% of its electricity demand, then more power to them. But if they want the reliable, 24/7, baseload power, then a couple of nuclear reactors could serve them just fine.