The Pew Center on the Prospects for Climate Change Legislation

Earlier today, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change issued a report on the prospects for the passage of climate change legislation in the next Congress:

The 2006 elections have significantly improved the prospects of rational climate policy in the United States. While it is not yet clear how many of the newly-elected senators and representatives are prepared to vote for mandatory climate change measures, the new Democratic congressional majority puts control of the agenda in the hands of policymakers who, to a large extent, favor climate action

[...]

The wild card is Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). McCain, in partnership with Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT), wrote the first GHG cap-and-trade bill in 2003 and forced the Senate votes on it in 2003 and 2005. McCain’s commitment to climate action has been among the most important factors in advancing the issue in Congress to date. Now McCain is considered a front runner for presidency in 2008. If he becomes the Republican nominee in 2008 and continues to force votes on his climate change bill, anything is possible: Moderates from both parties might have an easier time voting for a climate change bill if its author is the head of the Republican Party.

All told, given:

* the US public's growing concern over climate change;
* the climate measures of California and the northeastern states;
* the growing sense in US industry that climate action is inevitable;
* the past several years of momentum in Congress;
* the recent election results; and
* Sen. McCain's chances of being the Republican nominee for President in 2008

we are optimistic that enactment of mandatory US climate action is plausible by 2008 and likely by 2010.

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